Well we are only a few hours from the official start of election day, and history is not on Bush's side. The indicators we have so far suggest that maybe history is in for a bit of a shock this year: most current polls are promising for Bush. Not necessarily the actual vote-tally polls, but the favorable-unfavorable ratings. These, I think, are what we really need to look at. If elections are really just a referendum on the incumbent (or the incumbent party), then certainly these are more telling of a country's thinking. Am I right? Power Line has a look at some stats on the latest New York Times poll (keep in mind the bias of that paper):

John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever.

President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.

Whether or not this pans out is beyond me. Going only by the number of Bush signs v. the number of Kerry signs I see and the people I talk to at work, I think the outcome is promising ... but I only interact with a very small portion of the country.

Another Power Line source has Bush winning 51% to 47%. Make sure you check it out because the analysis is pretty interesting (and convincing). Maybe it will help you rest easier tonight.

Regardless of who wins, I can only hope that the outcome is clear. I definitely don't want another long-winded Supreme Court battle that turns everyone violent and bitter. I hope that the rest of America agrees with me.