The Counterpoint

November 01, 2004

Election wind-up: final thoughts

Well we are only a few hours from the official start of election day, and history is not on Bush's side. The indicators we have so far suggest that maybe history is in for a bit of a shock this year: most current polls are promising for Bush. Not necessarily the actual vote-tally polls, but the favorable-unfavorable ratings. These, I think, are what we really need to look at. If elections are really just a referendum on the incumbent (or the incumbent party), then certainly these are more telling of a country's thinking. Am I right? Power Line has a look at some stats on the latest New York Times poll (keep in mind the bias of that paper):

  • John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever.

  • President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.
  • Whether or not this pans out is beyond me. Going only by the number of Bush signs v. the number of Kerry signs I see and the people I talk to at work, I think the outcome is promising ... but I only interact with a very small portion of the country.

    Another Power Line source has Bush winning 51% to 47%. Make sure you check it out because the analysis is pretty interesting (and convincing). Maybe it will help you rest easier tonight.

    Regardless of who wins, I can only hope that the outcome is clear. I definitely don't want another long-winded Supreme Court battle that turns everyone violent and bitter. I hope that the rest of America agrees with me.


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